If you think of state governments as basically being as permissive as possible consistent with not overwhelming their hospital systems then even vaccinating 20% of the population has a huge economic impact as long as it’s targeted in a halfway plausible way.

That is from Matt Yglesias.  I would stress also the bad news that in the meantime many Americans (other citizens too!) are becoming infected.  I haven’t seen recent serological results, but quite some time ago the range already was 10-15% of America infected.  It seems entirely plausible to think that many parts of the country (not SF, not Vermont) will be at 30% or higher infected by February.  Plus 20% getting vaccinated, and still likely a residue of the population with above average protective immune response, and by that I mean relative to age group.

So overalI I am more optimistic about the spring than are many of the people I am talking to.  And the United States may well be the first country to arrive at a semblance of herd immunity, albeit not the way we might have preferred.

The post Vaccination economic resumption sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

Vaccination economic resumption sentences to ponder

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